Corona Diary 2 April 2020

2020-04-02 07.52.17

Thursday is when we give the kids a nudge physically. The girls train with Monica and Axel trains with me.

The girls… Five rounds of:

  • 3 minutes treadmill jog/run
  • 10 squats
  • 14 mountain climbers
  • 7 push ups
  • 20 bicycle sit ups

Once you break through the inertia, they love it.

2020-04-02 08.54.03

It’s a highlight of my week as well. Axel did the whole workout below. Kid-sized goblet squat is 8 pounds.

2020-04-02 07.12.21

A favorite home school activity is “read to cat” => Bella loves it.

2020-04-02 09.01.35

We are making progress! Even with a morning workout, our oldest had her daily agenda printed and scheduled by 8:30am. I came down from my post workout shower and she was working on her own, relaxed!

Today’s schedule.

We’re still going through our homemade pizza. I had a personal “victory” by avoiding it.

2020-03-31 18.18.44

Unfortunately, that’s it for good news.


Virus Economics

Second wave of infections in China getting press this morning. I expect the official Chinese data will be discredited. It’s a nation with a large downside for honesty. Truth leaking out via social media.

Friends, this seems obvious. If a handful of arrivals can shut Colorado in a month then there’s no way we can eradicate this virus via lockdown. We each need to prepare for rolling lockdowns until a vaccine is available.

14-day increase of American unemployed is ten million => true number way higher. This matters because it is the bottom up shock that starts the downward economic spiral.

Here’s a vivid example of the top down shock

Vail Resorts will cut loose its hourly workers in hotspots at the end of this week. The reasons are understandable, the resorts are going to have no visitors for months.  The CEO is demonstrating leadership and personal accountability => taking a major personal financial hit.

Article linked below: consider the mention of deferred capex and cancelled dividend payments. This is going to happen, globally.

There is a clear public interest for the state of Colorado to pay (former) hotspot employees to quarantine in place and exit test. This is an example of something “we” could get for the payments we are (collectively) making to the dislocated.

Vail Resorts announces paycuts, furloughs for employees, pause in payouts for CEO, board, shareholders |

Note the linked article places virus arrival in Colorado on Feb 29th. If that was patient zero then I’m impressed with the speed of our reaction. Very hard to change mindset quickly. Boulder schools closed March 13th.

Think about that for a minute.

If true then.. patient zero arrives Feb 29th, the state is shut a month a later.

The locations without problems today should assume they are fooling themselves.


Hedging The Downside

If this week was going to be your new reality through next summer then what steps could you take to help yourself, family and firm?

Vail Resorts shows what makes sense for you, your family and your firm => immediate actions to conserve cash.

This is why governments need to step in => we will send ourselves straight down the drain if we act in our individual self interest.

Now… if “we” are going to pay people to stay at home then “we” should figure out a way to make ourselves more productive.

This is relevant for the successor bailouts that will inevitably follow this first round of support ($2T from the Feds).

Millions of unemployed (10 million applications in the US in 14-days) are going to want something to do.

Globally, there is going to be a huge pool of reserve labor.


Thinking Beyond April

Life is likely to be very different until a vaccine is widely available. I’m starting to manage my expectations in that regard.

We bought a peloton bike to prepare for rolling, ongoing, strict quarantine. A quick review of prior pandemics shows Colorado’s level of quarantine is a loose one.

Florida locked down yesterday / better late than never // given their demographics I expect it will be awful down there – very unfortunate. The economic impact of their delay will be a multiple of what they earned by staying open for Spring Break.

Same deal in Cabo by the way. Just like BoCo peeps getting upset with college kids having St Paddy’s parties, people continue to blame kids for being kids – NYT article on Texas Theta. Frat kids make a convenient scapegoat in a time of heightened fear.

These stories are simply the ones we know about. The virus has been, and is, everywhere. Easy to have guessed the virus would be partying at spring break.

Governor Polis shut our schools through the end of April. In May, my expectation is we will return by appointment and clear out our desks. We are scheduled to end on 5/21.

Yesterday, the district school superintendent shut access to fields, tracks and playgrounds. City has left the parks open, for now. Our quarantine bubble is shrinking. Yours will too.

As at today, I don’t see how we run summer swim league, or any gatherings until there’s a vaccine.

It makes far more sense for us to gradually open the economy before allowing social groups for recreation. I realize this is bad news for individuals but it makes sense for the collective. This new reality is likely to continue for some time.

WSJ reporting the Feds are thinking about grounding flights to/from hotspots. I’d thought that would happen last week (and I was wrong). Governors should immediately restrict ground travel in/out of hotspots.

Colorado running a marketing campaign to get people to avoid traveling into known hotspots => you’d think this would be obvious. Don’t drive into the virus zone, people.

I don’t know if state governors’ emergency power enable them to use the Highway Patrol to turn around vacationers. NPR reporting the Feds have limited powers in this regard.

It is unfortunate, and understandable, that we will have to wait for things to get really, really bad before the public will accept (and demand) strict quarantine.

Why The President Likely Can’t Issue A National Stay-Home Order : NPR


Local Update

Last night (18 days after we closed schools, 32 days after presumptive patient zero landed in Denver), BoCo reported virus positives in four long-term care facilities. This includes our largest senior living complex.

This might put an end to our declining rate of virus positives. Collectively, we should assume the virus is already everywhere.

Coming up on April 6th – routine emergency siren testing in BoCo – give your kids a heads up and mark your calendars. I remember how this made me feel during the floods of 2013… eerie!

Market up 2% as I post this.

Go figure.