Part One of SuperVet Fitness

Step One is improving low-end aerobic function by adding cycling volume under LT1

My return to “proper” endurance training will offer me a chance to demonstrate some things.

It’s whole lot easier to hit modest fitness targets if you have sufficient muscle mass for your goals (Link to Big Slow Day Article)

A lot of athletes see their size as a hinderance to their goals.

I don’t.

If you want to rip bumps in your 60s, sustain impact, run the risk of the occasional crash… a bit of size, combined with a lot strength, will serve you well.

So I’ve moved to my strongest-training weight – which is ~5 lbs above my low-volume sustainable weight.

On my old protocol (outlined here) – being a bit light is fine. However, when my goals require the capacity to fuel meaningful output, my “light weight” slows my recovery.

Let’s be clear: endurance athletes have a “light is right” bias.

Smart athletes know it is better to match your body composition to your goals.

My #1 goal is faster recovery, so:

  • Each week at least two back-to-back recovery days
  • Run my body composition a little heavier
  • Ditch my alarm
  • Use morning HRV to check in before loading
  • Bring back training nutrition

Making The Most of My Time

Many athletes seek to optimize their time by boosting average workout intensity (Sweet Spot, Heavy Domain, Tempo).

I’ve seen it, and I’ve seen it work.

Doesn’t work for me.

I’m going Nordic

  • Swedish 5:2 (see below)
  • Norwegian 80:20 (>80% Stamina Focus)

Swedish Periodization (5 days on, 2 days off) means radical recovery and compressed loading:

  • If I finish Day 5 by Noon, then I have ~65 hours until I train again
    • Every week has space for Real Life => sustainable
    • I get a weekly reset
    • My digestion gets a rest – training uptake is fatiguing
  • My Stamina focus is a 2-for-1
    • Train energy uptake (ideas for you)
    • Improve function of my mitochondria
  • My “intense” allocation (<20% total loading) includes my strength training – strength is where I preserve my long-term edge (strength, muscle mass)


Most everybody wants to get faster.

That would be nice… …and I expect it to happen

However, what I actually want is… the capacity to hold my existing submax fitness longer

Which implies…

  • 90% => bottom-up metabolic fitness & train my gut
  • 10% => strength & muscle mass

I’ll keep working and report back

Sunday Summary 22 May 2022

Top 5 by Engagement

  1. SuperVet Fitness – blog tomorrow
  2. Things to try before swimming harder
  3. Training Nutrition
  4. Ditch your alarm, with AC
  5. Train the payoff – also with Jené at Triathlete

Workouts and Working Out

High Performance in the Real World

Supply of Money and Interest Rate Transmission Mechanisms

BoCo in May

Feels like I’m getting to the end of my Thursday finance series!

Things I’ve noticed in May 2022:

  • Stablecoin instability
  • Pain at the retail level
  • Step-down price adjustments of stable businesses with mkt cap >$1 billion (disappearance of margin trade on reliable dividends, perhaps)
  • Buyer of my sale was 95% debt financed with a payment of 3x the gross rent I was receiving
  • Market down 19%, as I write

What I haven’t seen:

  • Widespread pain
  • Institutional capital destruction
  • Anything, anywhere, that looks cheap

Given the money creation of this cycle, those are key words to watch:

  • Pain
  • Capital Destruction
  • Cheap

Until those arrive, I’m going to be patient and live my life.


A reminder.

The Great Recession of 2008/2009 first got my attention with trouble in the interbank lending market (Early Summer 2008), this was after ~20% market decline.

There was a long way for the bear market to go, and its effect on real asset prices had years to run.

Great deals were available 2010-2012 => the equivalent of 2-4 years from “now”

Same thing in the UK Recession of 1990, my first out of school.

  • If we’re in a blip then rebalancing will be just fine
  • If we’re in for something more serious then it takes time to develop AND it takes years for price expectations to adjust

Live a life where you don’t need to be right.

How To Build An Online Community

I’ll send this out a little differently on Twitter here’s my profile over there.

I’ve built online communities 4x and it gets easier each time. Probably, because some of you have been reading me for 20+ years.

Thank you!


KNOW YOUR WHY – most the advice I see is about ramping up follows and seeking to convert attention to cash.

Pay attention and you might find that cash-for-attention isn’t what you seek.

Know your goal and write it down – if you’re successful then the crowd will nudge you in unexpected ways.

My reasons:

Establish Expert Credentials – doing 100s of case studies in public will let you “get your story straight” and build a network of successful students who’ve applied your best advice.

Where this gets really exciting is when you see someone take your lessons and improve upon them. My current project of getting-back-in-shape is using techniques taught to me by coaches who studied my approach. Cool!

Connect/Engage – I live in a narrow niche and have a set of values outside the norm. Toss me on Twitter and there are a million like-minded folks. I get a kick out of engaging from Finland to Switzerland to Brazil.

Take time to unsubscribe from vibes you don’t want.

My feed is positive and WAY better than reading the news.


MUTE AND MOVE ON

A fact of the internet => Yahoo-encounters scale faster than reach

I recommend a one strike and you’re out policy.

It’s never been easier to mute and move on.

My “why” does not require helping everyone, being universally liked or getting wrapped up in drama.


PICK A TOPIC YOU KNOW WELL

Lots of people know more than me, nobody knows my story better than me

…and it’s an interesting story because I…


DO INTERESTING STUFF THEN WRITE ABOUT IT

  • Taking a leave of absence, qualifying for World Champs and winning Ultraman Hawaii…
  • Being absolutely miserable then figuring out a way to get better…
  • Handing back a Private Equity partnership because I wanted to live an outdoor life…
  • Changing myself so I could attract a wonderful woman…
  • Learning to be an expert skier, late in life…
  • Write a book, then another…
  • Going from the couch to running a 35-minute 10K…
  • Giving comfort to the dying…

Be willing to fail – failure makes for great copy.

…and if you don’t fail… even better copy!


HELP STRANGERS

Ten years ago, I didn’t know my kids. So glad I made a choice towards family. We only get one chance to know a kid then they’re grown up.

  • Before I had my kids, I had my team.
  • Before my team, my readers.
  • Before my readers, fellow athletes trying to figure out sport.

While you are doing work… leverage yourself. Create systems to capture your best ideas – it might be as simple as a bedside notebook and a Notes App.

Pay attention to everyone who responds positively to your message.

Dial down those with a negative bias – this is very tough with the rich & famous – you do not want to “catch” a negative bias.


DO IT EVERY DAY

Pick one format/platform: blog, Twitter, forum, FB/IG, video… set yourself a schedule and do it every day.

13 cycles of my Content Week was enough to add 1,000 people to my network.

Further, by staying positive, I like ALL these people!

Make sure you like the world you create


ANALYTICS ON

Why?

Most simply, because the author doesn’t get to choose what interests the reader.

  • Capture what interests people (One Page PDFs)
  • Reinforce your best ideas (Copy & Paste Links)
  • Spend time improving your best stuff

Finally, there is no goal

The reward is in the work, improve the world one interaction at a time.

Sunday Summary 15 May 2022

Tweets of the Week (by engagement)

  1. Better to REMOVE one thing than chase the latest thing
  2. Our Pelotons read power -29% to +15% (nested threads)
  3. There is no hurry in Early Base (or anytime, really)
  4. What I did to get Ironman Marathon under 3-hrs
  5. Recap of my 2nd round of Swedish 5:2

Data comes from my Public Dashboard on BlackMagic.So

Family

Workouts & Working Out

High Performance Living

A public forum a lousy place for topics that require 1:1 trust

Strategic Family Capital

Couples trip to Vail last week – we skinned to the top of Ptarmigan, two days after closing.

Back in Feb, I laid out ideas for Multigenerational Capital, it included my strategy of Sell, Buy & Hold.

Last week, I completed the Sell Goal for 2022. There are two numbers I’d like to revisit:

  • Gross Yield of 43 years, 2.3%
  • Net Yield of 64 Years, 1.6%

I gave up ~2% yield on capital to add to my Strategic Reserve.


From wsj.com 5/5/2022

Snapshot from last week:

  • 2Y to 30Y yield ~3%
  • 30-year mortgage 5.25%
  • VTSAX Dividend Yield ~1.5%

By the end of 2022, short-term margin debt is expected to cost more than index equity yields. Medium-term debt is already more expensive.

These changes mark an end to the free-money policies of the last few years. This is a big change – it is unknowable if the change will prove sticky.

So… wait and see. I did a minor rebalance this week.

The rebalance was a repeat of the “buy less” strategy I shared in Feb.

In March 2020 I increased equity allocations to 72% of my Vanguard portfolio. 

Allocating additional capital in 2022, I made a reserve for “an investment that benefits the present”…

…then rebalanced to 60% equity allocation. 

This reduced the size of the new investment and got me past decision paralysis, driven by a fear of near-term loss.

The reserve now sits at ~15 years Core Cost of Living.


Looking pro

We’ve been looking around for a place in the mountains.

Coming off a year of AirBnB skiing, I know our cost to rent implies a gross yield of 0.75 – 1.75%.

Alternatives to buying:

  1. Stick the Strategic Reserve into VTSAX, rent through AirBnB and let dividend growth hedge rental inflation
  2. Stick the Strategic Reserve into a medium term bond product (VBTLX @ 3%) and earn a margin over my cost to rent
  3. Pursue either of the above, double my discretionary spending and run the capital down between now and my wife’s 85th birthday

For now, I’m taking Door #4

  • Rebalance after large (down) moves
  • Watch the Federal Reserve increase rates
  • See what happens

A 35% market decline implies a dividend yield over 2.25%, which would let me lock in the equivalent of three-months cost of living (after tax, forever).

I tossed my idea of buying a Sprinter Van for camping. The shift towards “assets for fun” doesn’t come naturally.

Setting Up A Lifetime of Winning

May in Boulder

Last Monday, I gave you three things to consider:

  • Face your fear of recovery
  • Consider if you have the muscle mass to achieve your goals
  • Build your capacity for One Big Slow Day

Another way to think about recovery is to invert – give yourself a protocol that you will enjoy regardless of outcome – lack of enjoyment is a sign your approach is unsustainable.

Injury and illness are socially-acceptable ways to manifest a lack of enjoyment.

Work, school, sport… bad luck is less random than it appears.


The best thing I learned about protocol was taught to me by a doctor friend:

Gordo, we don’t heal people. People heal themselves.

The magic isn’t in the protocol, supplement or dogma…

The magic ingredient is YOU!


Step back from all the noise about protocols.

How might we create a lifetime of winning?

  • Consistency
  • Enjoyment

Focus there.


What do we see in every successful person?

  1. Practice often
  2. Devote time
  3. Learn skills

Focus there.


I’ve been reading the literature around SuperElite performance. It gets me fired-up to “practice often, devote time & learn skills” 🙂

However… it strikes me as a lot of narrative wrapped around the complex system of human performance.

The literature lacks self-awareness… despite what you see in the media, you probably do not want to be a Super Elite. I wouldn’t wish it on anyone.

Not our situation to solve.


For the rest of us!

The mental side is what’s going limit.

While we are consistently enjoying the journey…

  • do work
  • take correction

Parents, allocating TIME to have fun while you MODEL these skills is one of the best gifts you can give your kids.

I doesn’t need to be you (but your kids really want you involved).

Teach your kids to be the best version of themselves.


Not better than the rest,
I hope you are the best YOU can be

Sunday Summary 8 May 2022

Workouts & Working Out

True Wealth

Productivity

Real Estate Outlook 2022

How I think about the pricing history of financial assets – note bottom right blip

I sold a large real estate asset this week, a residential rental.

There’s an argument that the buyer got the building for free (Twitter thread on backing out land value).

At the closing, my agent (50-ish) shared that the only recession he’d really experienced was 2008/2009. So the next chart is his personal experience with asset pricing.


Right hand corner blip looks a little bigger

The above chart is ~20-years of mortgage rate history. If you’re 40-something this is what you lived.

Mostly a one-way bet => falling long rates inflate financial assets.


Back to my sale.

I sold for a three reasons:

  1. At 53, my life is changing. The window of what I need to finance is less and less. I have begun a strategic shift towards creating the life I want to live in my 60s.
  2. Real Estate is lumpy, we don’t have the ability to incrementally rebalance. I wanted to reduce exposure before making any additional purchases.
  3. The sale was valued at 43 years gross rental income (2.3%). Cash proceeds, after tax, were 64 years net rental income (1.6%).

Institutional Memory is 1,000 days, max.
Here’s the last 1,000 days in the mortgage market.

The real estate market is like a super tanker, it takes a long time for momentum to shift. After the 2008/2009 recession, non-foreclosure prices didn’t adjust until the middle of 2010.

  • Prices move at the margin => the marginal buyer had a strong tailwind through the pandemic, that has changed in 2022.
  • There will be an impact of the near-vertical move in rates this year => initially, we will see this in markets that require loans to complete.
  • The scale of “the impact” is unknowable and complicated by supply shortages of re-sale houses and for new build.
  • Prices are being supported by rapidly rising cost-to-build and cost to renovate/remodel.

Lots going on – I can make a case for +25% and -25%.


At 53, taking 64 years-equivalent cash-flow off the table, in a rising rate environment, is a decision I’ll be able to live with regardless of future outcome.

Even Super Humans Start with One Big Slow Day

This is the way

I’ve been having fun reading NVDP’s training approach (link is to his site).

I felt deep satisfaction seeing an athlete improve on a protocol that was taught to me. Fun to be part of a lineage that extends backwards, and forwards, in time.

A personal confession, there is a twinge of sadness when I read the document. Sadness because I had the passion to do the work, but lacked the courage to recover.

I will teach this to my children, and offer it to you.

Recovery is what truly scares the highly motivated.


Kids have a capacity, and desire, to get very strong at a young age

Where does it all begin?

Skeletal muscle mass – do you have enough muscle to generate the aerobic power for your goals?

Let’s be clear what I’m really talking about => self-starvation risks your ability to be an exceptional athlete.

I lift weights to have aerobic capacity for many tomorrows.

The foundation of wherever you want to take yourself is skeletal muscle mass – very important to get this message through to girls & boys.

Youngsters – ride the natural build up

Oldsters – preserve, and hopefully, build upon your current position


A long slow day to the top of Mt Huron (14,005 ft)

The value of a long slow day

I’m extremely consistent with my aerobic training.

My consistency has resulted in great health, but it has not translated to superior metabolic fitness.

Consistent, moderate aerobic exercise doesn’t translate to superior metabolic fitness.

I do wish it was otherwise!

My lack of metabolic fitness doesn’t impact my body composition, or my life. See my article on training middle aged docs.

Looking forward, metabolics might be a limiter.

Here’s the progression:

  1. At first, moving around all day is tough enough
  2. Next, noodling around, at any speed, for 4-6 hours, is tough enough
  3. Then, maybe we add some jogging, or combine with some cycling
  4. Then, we try to keep easy, constant pressure on our long session

The first time I did 1 to 4… it took me ~5 years

Slow ramp of load.


Know where you are trying to go.

  • NVDP was seeking to break the world record for a 10K skate.
  • I’d like the option to do expeditions with my 15-18 yo son.

The concept of 5s pops up in NVDP’s plan.

  • 5 Days On, 2 Days Off
  • 5x >5,000 kj on the bike
  • 5 days of mind-blowing threshold sessions

The toughest expedition I can imagine can be structured as:

(5x) One Day On, One Day Off => ~5 big days in a two-week block

Thankfully, I don’t need to string 5 days together, like a world champion.

All I need to do is build the capacity to do One Big Slow Day, Rest then repeat.

This was the key lesson of my 20s: the capacity to do one big slow day changed my life.

What is your goal?

Share the journey with people you love.