Monthly Archives: September 2021

Winter Season Planning

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The trip to the Canyon marked the end of my summer season. On the bus ride back to our car, my wife asked “what’s next?” I’ll share the answers to that question and add some ideas that might be helpful.

One of my challenges with parenthood is being haunted by the thought… “I’m going to be old by the time I escape this grind.” In my 20s, that thought (and a divorce) helped me jettison myself from desk work.

Our youngest isn’t going to graduate high school until 2032, so there’s some truth in these feelings. However:

(1) my age isn’t necessary a problem, or a barrier, for a life with meaning;

(2) I had similar thoughts ~20 years ago and things turned out fine; and

(3) fear is a distraction from doing what solves the problem.

Anyhow, I wanted to acknowledge those thoughts as I’m certain many of us feel similarly, at times.

We’ll see how long he can continue to flash his age. He’s currently 5.11 at our local.

The Mental Benefit of Getting Better At Something

One of my coaching mentors, John Hellemans, has a wonderful presentation about triathlon. One of his lessons is “try something new, each year.” He backs this advice with a series of slides showing all the whacky equipment he tried out over the years. He must get a kick out of novelty.

Coming out of COVID (it seems we’ve been leaving the pandemic for all of 2021!), I was gym-strong. As a result, I’ve been able to get back, rather quickly, to a level of indoor climbing I’d last achieved in 1996.

Gains & novelty are fun.

What will you try this winter?

My areas for improvement: metabolic fitness via endurance cycling, skills & novelty via indoor climbing, eccentric leg strength via dryland ski training and agility via downhill skiing.

She’s always been a great runner, just didn’t like it! 🙂 Swimming helped her get used to how racing feels. PS: something I tell her, “by turning up at a race, regardless of outcome, you make everyone better.” She’s been shaking up the hierarchy at various squads around town. Be grateful for your competition, and remember that winning is fleeting.

Knowing What I Don’t Want

Do you know the conditions likely to to bring out your worst?

I sure do: tired, in traffic, the whole family in close proximity, after a day spent answering questions and listening to low-grade bickering between my kids.

Not going to spend time, and money, to put myself in that situation!

My personal planner, through to the end of March 2022, doesn’t have a single peak-period family drive (and the kids had to demonstrate a material improvement in behavior to get me to agree to fly with them).

The current situation tends to continue as long as we tolerate it.

Write out your “not to do” list.

New sheriff in town. Howdy partner!

The Value of Being Able to Change Course

The last year was another reminder how life surprises me.

In August 2020, our daughter started year round swim team. Team implies ~12 meets a year, 6 of those requiring travel. That’s a lot of time out of my “with my wife” allocation. It was a major adjustment for me, which we are still figuring out.

That wasn’t the surprising part, fatherhood can feel like a gradual drift down the priority list until the kids move out. Just the way it is, and why I make a priority of having fun with my wife.

I was surprised by the cost. Swimming is expensive for a “cheap” sport. Our cost is greatly increased by my desire for childcare => so I don’t lose my mind, being left home alone with the other kids.

++

Over the years we have considered properties in various vacation markets. I feel fortunate that I didn’t pull the trigger on anything. Because we didn’t lock ourselves into a secondary market, it was painless to cut the winter activity budget in half and cover the cost of swimming.

So no winter ski place rental, which eliminates Sunday drives home (in snow storms, tired, with all three kids).

Of Interest Here: I am being compensated by less of what I don’t like. Very tough to price the benefit of via negativa.

What would I pay to cut my worst days in half? No idea, but I do pause to notice the benefits of less.

The lesson isn’t my specific situation. The lesson is life changes every five years or so. Choices, and investments, that make sense today can be costly to unwind tomorrow => even when you get out at a profit.

We’ve owned a BoCo rental property since 2010 and I’m often tempted to swap it for a vacation place. By not buying in a secondary market:

  • I continued to hold a rental property in my home market.
  • I didn’t pay capital gains taxes.
  • The rental income more than covered my vacation rentals.
  • I benefited from 75% capital appreciation.
  • My net cost on the site is zero, a few years back I subdivided and sold part of the land.

In 2016, I didn’t know how I would be surprised, but I could see the ability to cover vacation expenses with rental income. Also, it was also easy to calculate the taxes and agents fees deferred by not selling => make the cost of change visible.

I have a persistent feeling that owning is better. In secondary markets, the facts tell me otherwise.

Looking forward to 2032, I know we will be empty nesters. What that means for our life is unknowable today.

Stay variable.

Take Advantage of Childhood Opportunities

There is a limited window of time where my kids will think I am brilliant. I care about the value of my family’s human capital so I remember…

It is much easier to indoctrinate a child in “risk management by example” than to achieve anything by heckling a teen.

As a coach, my job was to teach my team what I would advise, without needing to say it.

Being the brand was excellent preparation for parenthood. Kids have a keen nose for inconsistency!

Prepared is better than protected.

Repeating good habits from a young age will do more for my family than any amount of lecturing. (1) Do it right, every single time. (2) Be open to learning from everyone, even your siblings!

Grand Canyon 2021

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If you are a tentative nighttime-descender then consider getting a set of Knuckle Lights. Worth 5-10 minutes per mile for my wife. They didn’t do much for my night vision, but she was happy!

Two days and ~50 miles in the Grand Canyon. Going to share pictures and ideas in case you’re thinking about something big in your future.

At the start, dropping down Bright Angel trail – it’s an extra 2.5 miles to Phantom Ranch but the drop is more gradual and the stairs are not as high as on South Kaibab. The view dropping in on South Kaibab is spectacular, however. We were in the dark so I opted to save our legs with a smoother entry to the canyon. TIP: If you want to maintain your night vision then green works better than red. Water available (in-season) on Bright Angel, none of South Kaibab until you hit the river.
~82F at 5am at Indian Gardens. With no real heat training, I was quite concerned about melting down. We dropped in ~3am on both days.
From Indian Gardens through to Manzanita Rest Area, you’re never far from water. Bring a filter and keep your clothes wet. Ultimate Direction’s ultralight tee was awesome – in the heat and low humidity it felt freezing each time I put it back on after dipping.
Good look at my lightweight setup – three piece carbon poles, running hydration vest with pockets up-front. Accented (!) with a small belt pack. This pic is at the bottom of Bright Angel.
Soft sand segments and beach weather!

10+ years ago I came through here with Jonas Colting on our way up Bright Angel. So many good memories with him.

TIP: on your way into the canyon, aim for as many flat foot plants as possible. In the sand, on the stairs, everywhere. This will reduce the stress on your feet and lower legs.
10 miles to the end of the bridge from Bright Angel Lodge at the top of the South Rim.
Ultimate Fastpack 20L, can hold 4x500ml soft bottles up front. Gear keeps getting better and better.

Knee sleeves are HUGE for keeping my 52 yo legs happy when descending. Big lifeguard hat works better in Colorado cool than Arizona heat. Still loved having it.
Back in the day… I ran into the Canyon with nothing but a belly full of sports nutrition. Loaded up on the Ranch’s lemonade and hit the water stations on my way up Bright Angel.

Water, food and souvenirs available at Phantom Ranch – check their website for details and opening hours.
Someone didn’t pick up their breakfast, so they gave it to me, gratis! I didn’t eat the sausage.

Day One was ~2,500 kcal by 7am and 3,000+ by 10am. I skew my calories, fat and protein => early and late.
~25 miles to the North Rim if you drop Bright Angel. But… my GPS works “funny” in cliffy sections, we had a couple miles (both days) that seemed too quick for the effort. I think it was the GPS bouncing around/up/down in steep terrain.
Box Canyon is a neat place. I wouldn’t want to be there on a hot afternoon. We were through by 9a.
More Box Canyon and a profile shot of my pack. Knee sleeves are transitioned to calf compression.
Ran into our buddy, Doug, below Cottonwood Campground. He did the out-and-back in a day. 30 miles in his legs at this point and he was looking strong. Bold!
A very dry place with lots of water around.

I’ve been using Katadyn BeFree collapsible water filter (1L bottle) all season. Weighs nothing and doubles as a spare bottle. Carrying some form of water purification system is essential – the park water can fail and/or get contaminated.
~4,500 vertical to go. Long days are about finding sustainable pace and sticking with it. Both days the uphill segments took longer than we expected. With a 3am roll, there was a lot of darkness/shade in our 10 hour north-bound crossing.
The view from the dining room of the North Rim Lodge, which is ~2 miles from the North Kaibab Trailhead.

They release their rooms/cabins in batches. I signed up in April for our September trip. I also booked dinner at the same time. They were sold out, and fully booked, on a Tuesday after Labor Day.
Day Two breakfast was carrot cake from the restaurant and Nitro Coffee I’d hauled across. Not having to worry about a third day, I ate lighter, but not light! 😉
On day two, five hours of hiking, and six hours total time, found us back at the river.

Phantom Ranch sells cold brew coffee, which was appreciated. Drank three refills before the ice was gone (one coffee and two water).
Just south of the bridge, we were rolled up by a mule train.
We were chatting with the cowboy and found out they take 4 hours, with 19 stops, to get from Phantom Ranch to the top of South Kaibab. We pushed on, curious to see if we’d be able to hold them off…
Mule train moving right in the foreground of this shot, bottom of the frame.

These views are why South Kaibab is so amazing.
I was hopeful that the top of this feature would see us within shouting distance of the top.
Not to be!

Tucked into the butte with 3 miles and 2,300 vertical to go. Feeling my lack of heat training and hiding under a ledge to dial down low-grade nausea while I drank. From this point on => heat, not fitness, dictated sustainable pace. I’d planned on dumping surplus water on myself to cool off but found we didn’t have any to spare.

Pants are the best $30 I’ve spent this year – team them up with a fabric belt, which can double as a field tourniquet. Rest of my first aid kit was an epipen, albuterol, scissors, moleskin and an assortment of fabric bandages. Lunch, both days, was ~500 kcal of Hammer Gel Vanilla served at 10am with a stack of water. No further calories until the rim, just sipping water. Eat so you can continue, without eating, when the going gets tough.
Never surge HR and remember by the time you need to drink, it’s too late.

I started my hydration early. I knew Day Two would have a demanding finish and I’d been peeing every 45 minutes since before dawn. Drank ~2L, while eating, at Phantom Ranch. We filled up every container we had for the hike up Kaibab.

The only thing you will find on South Kaibab is vault toilets, and the kindness of strangers.
I have a similar pic from April 2008.

Three kids and many adventures later… I was back.

Make time to share experiences with those you want to grow close to.

Love you babe!

Feeling fresh on the bus back to the village AND we put an hour into those mules!

A little bit of shared suffering is an effective way to strengthen the bonds of marriage.

Deeply thankful the trip was her idea.

Fortune’s Formula

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Fortune’s Formula by Poundstone was recommended inside Safe Haven. The book touched on a number of questions/issues I’ve been pondering since attending Taleb’s seminar in October 2019.

Very helpful book!

What follows are a bunch of points I’m writing down so I can refer back later.

Insurance proceeds: Will I be able to access my money when I need it? Applies to everything, especially exotics.

All families are sellers, eventually.

This is an important point because crashes are most damaging when one is forced to sell into them. Ironic point is many (most?) of us choose to sell into them (or in fear of them).

Recently, I came across an article about CalPERS selling billions into a dip – even smart people make poor decisions, most often when they are custodians of other people’s money.

Most institutions have shorter memories than families. Keep reminding yourself of your mistakes – you probably paid a lot to learn your lessons.

Train yourself, and your kids, to be able to tolerate bad news. It saves time, money and emotion.

Counter-party Risk

Payout => who’s on the other side of my insurance trade and are they going to need a bailout to pay me? If my insurance company might need a bailout then am I really insured?

I’ve done my best deals when all buyers have disappeared. A delay in payout can have a huge opportunity cost to me.

Skill => reading financial history, I notice the people on the other side have… better analytical skill, superior computing power, faster capacity to execute, better (and inside) information, favorable leverage terms, assistance with “techniques” to defer/avoid/evade taxation.

These folks are on the other side of everything I do.

Ruin

Steer clear of most bets where there’s a chance you could lose all your money. Many useful examples in the book.

This doesn’t mean to avoid all loses inside a portfolio. Highly volatile bets can make sense when limited in size.

This does mean avoid creating a portfolio (or lifestyle!) with the potential for total loss.

Kelly Criterion

I do not have faith in my calculations of the probably of real-world outcomes. For me to use Kelly, I need to have a feel for the odds of various outcomes.

Using Kelly weighting (even fractional) runs the risk of fooling myself about the total amount of risk I am taking on. There’s probably a way to work backwards and see the implied odds within various prices – I do not have confidence in my capacity to compete with experts in the arbitrage pricing domain.

That said, the key point I took from the discussion, “never bet an amount that results in a chance, any chance, you’ll be removed from the game.” This calculation is simple to calculate and easy to execute.

Downturns & Drawdowns

With this in mind, there’s an important point about investing for long-term wealth. The likelihood of a major drawdown and the cyclical nature of exponential growth.

Put simply, most families, using a long-term wealth maximizing strategy, will spend a lot of time being “less wealthy than they used to be”. Page 228 of the 1st hardcover edition.

BIG POINT: many families trade a ton of return to avoid this reality // OR // over-bet in the short-term in an effort to avoid normal downward wealth fluctuations.

Worth emphasizing! Most people trade long-term return or increase their risk of ruin to avoid natural fluctuations in wealth (and fitness, for that matter).

Very few people have the emotional make up to roll with the punches when it comes to volatility.

One way to hedge yourself is to maintain the capacity to cut spending so you maintain your “net worth / cash burn” ratio. I write about this a lot because it can give you an emotional edge during a crisis.

Buyer Beware

OK, you say to yourself, I don’t understand how to tail risk hedge so I’m going to use an outside expert to do it for me.

Not so fast!

Focus on your day job. Be really excellent at what you know well. In your financial life, be extremely conservative.

Because…

In every field I’ve gotten to know well…

As a class, insiders consume the excess return for themselves.

…private equity, CEOs, elective-medicine, sports supplements, luxury goods, commercial banking…

Excess returns come from inside a field where you are world-class, not from tinkering on the other side of a trade with a finance whiz.

The Eternal Return of Childhood Nutrition

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Many struggle to see how the Eternal Return impacts our relationship with risk (last week’s post).

It is easy, however, easier to see repetition with our food choices.

With my kids’ nutrition, I have three behaviors I model.

#1. Remove friction for good decisions.

Much of our learning happens by repeating what’s presented.

The path of least resistance is a useful tool when used with purpose.

COVID Fridge!
Dad always knocked the icing off. Such a fun guy… 😉

#2. Do not make binges fun.

I know ALL about this!

As an ultra endurance athlete, I had a lot of fun with binge training. For my brief period of being really, really fast… removing the binges was a key part of my coach’s strategy for me. Fatigue is a geometric process!

Most societies, and families, have a tradition of feasting. In an environment of abundance, training myself to overeat does not work. Most especially, when coupled with positive emotional feedback.

In the language of finance… my meal choices are not independent from each other => habit energy runs strong in my wise/unwise selections.

With the kids… never give positive emotional feedback, and in-the-moment attention, to overeating.

Later… I get a chance to listen to them… then add… “try to learn from what you just told me”.

To help our family members with “appetite”, we always start with nutrient dense foods.

I am binary in many areas of my life – not having to decide gives me energy to apply elsewhere.

With food, binary isn’t an option => we gotta eat every day and the better our choices, the better our outcome.

So…

The final area where we offer guidance, and make an effort ourselves, is with portion control of energy dense choices (bread, noodles, sugars, starches, desserts).

We’re OK with the kids eating anything – we’re gluten friendly, could care less if they eat meat, take good care of our vegan pals, have a choice of dairy/non-dairy milks… in Boulder, we can handle any kid.

There is no choice to make on household dogma.

You simply need to be willing to eat real food.

Fill up on the good stuff, first.

Then have some of whatever else you’d like.

  • Remove friction
  • Don’t celebrate binges
  • Good stuff first

No dogma.