Here’s my thread on Steve’s Book, Do Hard Things. It’s a great read.
Today, I want to share a filter for the “hard things” you might be considering.
The Tour de France just finished up.
Lance and I have different views on a few things but an area where we are in alignment is fatherhood.
You may remember hearing his son defend his lie was a trigger for him (Oprah interview).
My kids trigger me, too.
My kids have clear memories of my mistakes, and they talk about them!
Well before I had my kids, Lance shared an observation along these lines…
Winning the Tour is easy compared to being a good parent
Truth, as deep as you want to take it.
Much of what we define as difficult is a thin-desire for: (a) domination over another person, (b) respect from another person, or (c) deference from other people.
Domination
Respect
Deference
We see it everywhere.
Can you feel it in yourself?
I can.
These desires lead me astray!
My drive for achievement pushes me ever forward – more money, more victory, more conquest…
My drive led me to many difficulties, eventually to a divorce.
I made a choice to leave that former life behind, but the habit of striving came along.
Easier to replace a habit, than transcend it.
Lasting satisfaction, the kind that reduces desire, comes from overcoming ourselves and, ideally, building something with other people.
Perhaps a marriage, or a family, or a business, or a community.
It’s been 60 days and we’re starting to see the beginning of the adjustment from higher rates. Average 30-year mortgage chart below.
Looking back One Year
Inventory is back at pre-COVID levels and prices are moving sideways. My feeling is the market is going to get cheaper.
This is a yield-based feeling.
Let’s look at the current yield curve.
Black 2022 vs Blue 2021
A simple metric I use for vacation markets.
What is “one week rental” relative to capital value?
I priced two markets this past week. These are not Christmas or Holiday Weekend rates, but they are December to February high season weeks.
Jackson – $10,000 a week relative to $4-6 million capital value
Vail – $5,000 a week relative to $2-4 million capital value
This is where the Yield Curve is useful – the 6 mth (to 30-year) rate is ~3%
3% of $5 million is $150,000 per annum vs $10K a week to rent
For nearly all users, the secondary market has swung strongly in favor of rent vs buy.
Other impacts… the stock market ~19% off its peak, crypto down, commodities down, China property market under stress, hot war in Europe, US Fed in a tightening cycle…
These changes, combined, are making marginal buyers less wealthy.
All prices move at the margin.
What does this mean?
My #1 investment principle is to construct a life where I don’t need to be right.
If the Central Banks are done bailing out financial assets then it makes sense for the price of financial assets to fall. The free-money era pulled returns forward and some of that will need to go back into the future.
That said, the recent past shows a clear bias towards continuous financial bail outs.
Impossible to know what will happen.
A note on inflation, as I see it.
If you own financial assets then you’ve been “paid” in asset appreciation over the last few years – SP500 is up ~50% over last 5 years.
Going back further, say 2010, the owners of financial assets have grown accustomed to unearned wealth.
So the best hedge against the market (& inflation) was letting personal spending decline, as a percentage of family assets, across the run up.
If you didn’t own assets then, hopefully, you’re in a skilled profession where you’ve been able to increase your income faster than inflation. If not then your best investment is up-skilling yourself.
The recent past, and media, are skewing your perception of inflation.
What’s your best guess for the 10-year breakeven inflation rate?
It peaked at 3% in the spring, currently 2.4%
1.03 ^ 10 = 1.34, 34% price increase over last 10 years
If, like me, you were building a family then your core cost of living is up WAY more than 34%.
When I look at our family budget, I can see a big part of our increase is lifestyle inflation.
For many of us: the long bull market has driven lifestyle inflation well ahead of the price inflation we’ve experienced.
Again, the best hedge is either: (a) not ramping spending, or (b) staying variable so the family can cut spending quickly, if required.
For perspective compare 34% 10-year inflation to…
SP500 10-year total return => 175% increase
The 10-year price of wherever you happen to be living
Short-term price inflation is nothing compared to long-term asset value inflation.
Given the future is unknowable (bailouts, ZIRP and money creation):
Coach Monsy tradition is swim your age in 200s – if you look in the lower left corner then you can read a fun note from our son, “good luck swimming 16,000 when you’re 80!”
At the end of May, Johan asked if I’ve ever tried 1-2-4 with coffee.
1-2-4 is the pattern I came across with regard to alcohol, or anything really, that reduces the chance of over-doing-it.
One an hour
Two a day
Four a week
Johan’s timing was perfect.
A month earlier, I was talking with Dr. Jeff Shilt. I had a concern that sustained, high intensity training might be bad for my health. Jeff was succinct…
If you really want to do something for your health, consider drinking less coffee
I knocked out alcohol a few years ago. Coffee, however, has been a 20-year habit. I’ve metabolized a heck of a lot of caffeine in my life.
I told Doc J that I wasn’t interested in that adjustment, and we left it.
However…
I pride myself on being a model-patient and I remembered what he said
…and, behind the scenes, I noticed it was taking more and more intake to get a coffee buzz
…and, then Johan came along and said pretty much the same thing
I found myself in the position of ignoring a doctor, an Olympian, two goal-medal coaches, and a long-term friend… all rolled up into two people.
I decided to give it a shot.
I stopped the morning after Johan’s question. Johan’s on a break as well.
3.5 weeks so far.
No headaches
Drinking more water
Overall hydration better (assess via urine color) – likely means my recovery is better
The one drawback has been waking up _really_ early (3am) and, for the first two weeks, I couldn’t fall back asleep.
Cravings, perhaps.
The Stories We Tell Ourselves
One of my fears of stopping coffee was I wouldn’t be able to wake up. The autobrew was my alarm clock.
FALSE – if anything it’s too easy to wake up!
Another fear, I’d have less energy.
FALSE – no change in energy
Two things this experiment have proved to me, yet again.
#1 // when you get to a place were more ceases to work, try less
#2 // every so often, call your bluff on the stories you are telling yourself
My inner narrative on coffee proved false.
Not the first time, I’d been fooling myself.
Related Post is The 30-Day Test // binary choices are easier for me than moderation, less cognitive burden
A coach is someone who can offer correction without causing resentment
– John wooden
When I notice someone has been triggered, I stop.
My life goals do not require me to change other people.
Inverting, being prickly reduces the world’s ability to help us out.
If you struggle to learn from experience then ASK…
What is it going to take for me to trust the process?
What is it going to take for me to trust the coach?
For me, It was watching Nils & Johan take everything I learned about sport and make it better. I wanted to take my knowledge to the next level.
In February, one small choice by Johan, set off of positive chain that brought us together.
Big thanks to you @Alan_Couzens and @feelthebyrn1 for sharing knowledge on the web. It's been a big part of my "studies" culminating in helping NVDP reach his world class performances the last 2 years. /Johan Röjler (personal trainer/coach NVDP since 2019)
Think back, who gets through to me, without resentment?
Combine with goals & VALUES alignment, and you have the ingredients for a valuable long-term relationship.
My marriage
My investment committee
My close friends
My board
All contain people who are able to get through to me. I am surrounded by elite coaches.
In our lives, we will come across people who have the capacity to make us want to improve, and the vision to make incremental suggestions that we can implement.
Pay attention when you feel their positive influence.
Feel The Byrn 
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