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Feels like I’m getting to the end of my Thursday finance series!

Things I’ve noticed in May 2022:

• Stablecoin instability
• Pain at the retail level
• Step-down price adjustments of stable businesses with mkt cap >$1 billion (disappearance of margin trade on reliable dividends, perhaps)
• Buyer of my sale was 95% debt financed with a payment of 3x the gross rent I was receiving
• Market down 19%, as I write

What I haven’t seen:

• Widespread pain
• Institutional capital destruction
• Anything, anywhere, that looks cheap

Given the money creation of this cycle, those are key words to watch:

• Pain
• Capital Destruction
• Cheap

Until those arrive, I’m going to be patient and live my life.

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A reminder.

The Great Recession of 2008/2009 first got my attention with trouble in the interbank lending market (Early Summer 2008), this was after ~20% market decline.

There was a long way for the bear market to go, and its effect on real asset prices had years to run.

Great deals were available 2010-2012 => the equivalent of 2-4 years from “now”

Same thing in the UK Recession of 1990, my first out of school.

• If we’re in a blip then rebalancing will be just fine
• If we’re in for something more serious then it takes time to develop AND it takes years for price expectations to adjust

Live a life where you don’t need to be right.