How did you use your weekend?
Late Friday afternoon, I watched the Bill Gates interview with Trevor Noah. I noticed:
What to expect? If we get it right then… one month to plateau, one month to decline.
When back to normal? When a vaccine has been successfully deployed across the nation, the Developed World and the Globe. I had missed “deployed.”
Where to focus? Rapid test results for front-line workers and sick people. Don’t get tested if you’re simply worried. We need that capacity for others.
Chinese Data? The exact numbers don’t matter. What matters is we saw them close their field hospitals.
Balkanize the USA? Bill G says it doesn’t make sense because we are so interconnected. I’m not sure about this for non-essential services/travel. However, I am sure that Bill G is more believable than me. So I’ll defer to his point of view and watch Western Europe’s internal border control.
What to open? Gatherings with large social benefits. Bill G cited education. Naval tweeted about unmixed daycare.
Politicians pretend every life has ♾ value. But unending lockdowns will crush the economy.
One sharp lockdown. Then:
– Hide the old
– Replace school w/ unmixed day care
– Promote young & immune workers
– No mass gatherings
– Remote if possible
– Back to work w/ masks & tests
— Naval (@naval) April 5, 2020
International Borders & Travel? Bill G said something that fits with the agenda of Trump’s Base. The developing world is likely to have the virus run through their countries. Which implies the “West” (and China/East Asia) will close borders or put strict quarantine measures in place.
Made me realize that I should… forget about international travel for a year => relates back to “deploy the vaccine”. Note Bill G used “years” when talking about this issue.
I doubt Olympics happening in 2021 => Japanese won’t tolerate global, non-vaccinated arrivals. Write it off and get your economy working again. Corona is a very bad deal (slide down on link).
Late Saturday, I borrowed my son’s iPad (my devices, keyboard and mouse were in a drawer!) to watch the extended Bill G interview on CBS.
Businesses with international guests and customers. How do you run an international business, which draws heavily from countries that may be burning with Corona? I have no idea. I don’t need to have an idea. What I need to do is manage, and likely reduce, financial commitments in these areas.
I have friends in Eagle County and with Vail Resorts. Does your life still work if the US seals its border for next winter season? What if there’s a month-long lockdown mid-season? What if you can only receive guests from in-state, or in-country? Lots of scenarios to consider. I would want back-up employment to cover my core cost of living.
Our success with stopping the current surge of infection, leaves us vulnerable to reinfection. Bill G talks about a very low infection rate in the Developed World’s population. He talks about how to address => testing, contact tracing.
I am hearing about secondary lockdowns in Singapore (pop 5.7 million) and Taiwan (pop 24 Million), already.
Trade-off between health and business => Bill G thinks its a false choice. He used one of my favorite phrases => There Is No Alternative (T.I.N.A.).
Here in the US, we are getting a case study of different approaches (by State). Europe can watch something similar (Denmark compared to Sweden).
Colorado’s “early” lockdown approach might have us at a plateau by the end of this week (Day 28). Time will tell.
Rest of the week topics:
- Our new goals for home school, gearing up to teach through August.
- How would I define cheap, today? For asset values.
- Body image in lockdown.
- Managing your bubble. At-risk people and those in the developing world should expect much longer lockdowns than the rest of us. Your brain will present two options: (a) screw it, I gotta live, if I die then I die; and (b) holy crap, I gotta lock down tight! I’ll consider the middle way.
- Friday update on our local situation. Is soft lockdown working?
Schedule your 48-hour unplug this week. It was a huge help to me.
Why? Because I need to be thinking clearly about the next year, not tracking the 24-hour news cycle.
Secret Life of Pets 2 had me laughing hard. Good medicine!