Corona Diary 7 May 2020

2020-05-07 09.14.07

Interesting to see docs, risk specialists and science profs share their ideas.

Here’s a few links that might interest:

Doc John discussing whether it makes sense to flatten. John has credibility with me because: (a) when he writes about niches I know very well (exercise), he makes sense; and (b) he’s willing to share observations that work against his financial and business interests.

Doc John extracting from a Swedish report that’s similar in tone to his blog – link to the report itself included in his post.

As an aside, the best thing I learned from Doc John was an observation, “good luck with convincing the endurance cohort of that reality.”

Another way of saying… when truth bumps into a core belief, expect the core belief to win.

Carl B, Biology Prof, countering the view that there is the same “area under the curve” whether it is flat, or not  => less of an overshoot means less death. Not directly in response to Doc John’s blog but explaining important considerations.

We have:

  1. multiple commentators, all more experienced than me
  2. all arguments emotionally appealing to a lay audience
  3. no consensus
  4. debate over future outcomes of complex systems

My take => proven exponential growth of a pathogen that is not well understood by the experts => therefore, lean heavily towards precaution. The burden of proof falls to the risk seekers.

2020-05-07 09.12.37.jpg

Also saw an interesting comment out of Sweden => a senior public health official was surprised they couldn’t keep the virus out of elderly care facilities, facilities which were locked down. We saw the same thing in Colorado, just down the street from me and elsewhere.

External quarantine starting in NYC:

Study on COVID and kids coming:

I’ll end the tweet summary with a useful reminder from Taleb:

Sometimes, all I need to do is find is one counter example to demolish my faulty thinking.

Neiman Marcus followed J Crew’s recent bankruptcy.