Corona Diary 17 June 2020

Our youngest is a true joy. I have always gotten along well with the last in birth order.

Our eggshell geodes worked out in the end. Phew!

We poked around and learned about the different types of deposits as well as how salt likes to “hold on to” water.

Why is Colorado doing better? I have no idea.

  • We shut down earlier but opened before states that, many said, were opening too early
  • We skew younger but have many at-risk folks in our communities
  • We had outbreaks throughout our state – widespread community transmission
  • Weather, climate, low population density, transit usage patterns?
  • From the ground, our lockdown appeared loose but, possibly, not as loose as other places

Time will tell. Many states that “closed late” appear to be surging right now. Florida now 10-15x our positives, depending on the day.

Politico article on Colorado => while the narrative makes sense, my experience is a wide range of outcomes (from great to ruin) can happen with a similar set of circumstances.

Complex systems were a key part of Taleb’s conference. This section was done well and helped my thinking about the real world (my conference notes here).

25% revenue shortfall being forecast for our state budget for the year starting July 2020.

We’re moving to Phase Three reopening => Protect Our Neighbors. Seeing as travel restrictions have been lifted, Axel and I are aiming for our first 14er summit this coming weekend.

Current affairs are providing many opportunities to share my family values with you. Here’s one:

I can handle the truth. I want to hear your bad news.

The default position in my house is disclosure.

Disclosure nudges better choices.

My son used $179 of earned income to get himself a Lego 4×4.

We bought a pilates machine to hedge our exposure to Health Clubs closing in the fall. Neither of us could physically handle another extended run block.

Kettlebells still sold out from my preferred supplier. Being stronger than my current dumbbell assortment is a very good problem to have.

I set a 25-year max on bench press this morning. Gains!

Lexi got her iPhone from selling ~200 masks. I bought the phone through Chase Rewards (20% discount when I paid with points, Apple stealth price drop).

This week our oldest is doing online babysitter certification. She wants to take advantage of frazzled parents and summer outdoor babysitting opportunities.

Last weekend, I awoke to gunfire both Friday and Saturday nights. This was out of the ordinary for BoCo.

Colorado passed a police reform bill: chokeholds banned, limits on when the police can shoot us in the back, duty to intervene when a fellow officer gets out of control, personal liability for officers, and all officers must wear body cameras (and their departments release the footage within 45 days).

Xterra, a type of triathlon, cancelled all their large events.

How does the Federal response to this crisis stack up with other blunders of my lifetime? The biggest leadership failure I have witnessed was the Feds giving us a tax cut, telling us to go shopping and starting a foreign war of choice. The true cost in blood and treasure of our over-reaction post-9/11 is a high bar for screwing up. We’re not there yet.

Came across a reminder that life goes on… California is leveraging their state employees pension fund. This is a bad idea. I wrote about this with regard to Colorado’s fund. If you are planning on a state-funded pension then my article is worth your time. I see no way you will get what (you think) you have been promised – leverage, inflation or lack of returns are likely to reduce your true payout.

Lots of discussion about school boards dropping police in schools. Some interesting ideas about where the funds could be applied to generate better outcomes for kids: counsellors, healthcare, suicide prevention, birth control, substance abuse programs… Second Order Thinking. Good to see. Free birth control saves lives.

24-Hour Fitness closing a dozen clubs in Colorado. Don’t see how tenants can pay 2019 lease rates with 2020 operating capacity limited to 50%. at max.

I stopped getting massages in early March. My wife bought me a Theragun for Father’s Day. It works, as does replacing my run program with Peloton! 😉

US Surgeon General on Masks:

Strengthen your local economy, wear a mask.

Trump and the Military => the President is truly exceptional at using small, seemingly insignificant steps, to get people to move away from their core values. It’s a tactic I’ve seen in the sex offenders I have come across in my life.

A test you can use, “How does this person make me feel?” “How does this situation make me feel?”

The technique of incremental domination, by people in positions of trust and power, is why we need strong laws to protect our children.

Teach your kids how to spot charismatic creeps.

Know we each have a blindspot embedded in our value systems => wealth, popularity, sports achievement, personal advancement, spiritual enlightenment… an ethical blindspot lives in each of us and it’s uncomfortable to face.

Two trillion of infrastructure spending being floated by the Feds this week.

This makes a lot more sense than paying ourselves not to work. Also better than a randomized program of unregulated government lending.

Seeing more reports of a prolonged COVID syndrome (Finland, UK). No clarity in our local news. It’s an area that concerns me, personally.

Unsold supply of real estate increasing in Vail, along with price cuts.

Closer to home => Boulder median prices took a dive in May, falling to $872,000. That’s down from $940,000 in May 2019 and from $1,125,000 in April 2020. Agents in the city had 29 sales on 236 active listings. Homes sold in May sat on the market for an average of 54 days. [From a press release.]

Very, very local… an early June college party five blocks away from us created a hotspot. The fact that County Public Health can share information down to the date, and address, for transmission is a useful development.

Last night we had our first takeout since early March. Did an in-house date night while the kids watched The Kid Who Would Be King. We enjoyed ourselves.