Corona Diary 23 March 2020

2020-03-21 09.33.50

We’ve been sharing laughter, daily.

You might want to start a list of good things in your life.

This year, I had a series of goals:

Get debt freewe repaid our mortgage in January, we have a car loan to go.

Become deeply patient – one of the best ways I know to improve is to put myself in a situation where my choice is: (a) improvement, or (b) insanity. Making rapid progress during the lockdown, even starting to wean myself off earplugs.

Be able to run my own house – personal responsibility is a core value of mine. When we were in the preschool years, I tossed independence and focused on survival. Towards the end of last year, I started the process of weaning the family from outside assistance. Great call.

Prepare for summer mountaineering – I saw “something” coming weeks ago. I ticked off a couple of winter goals and declared victory. I was lost the first weekend of lockdown so bought myself a new plan and got to work.

Finally, I wanted my kids to show more (perhaps, any?) appreciation and help me run the house. They are thriving under lockdown and I’m taking this opportunity to up-skill them.

The kids are kinda clueless about what’s happening outside the house but that’s OK. One of my goals is to give them a wonderful childhood. Soon enough, they will be able to stockpile TP with the rest of us.

In terms of the society I’d like to live inside, we are rapidly moving closer to what I prefer. It’s painful to get there. I’d rather not be going through it.

Fundamentally, we are being forced to “uncoddle” ourselves.

I am being forced to step-up. I like that feeling.

2020-03-21 11.04.59

Personal & Home School

Some folks are “joking” about divorces coming out of lockdown. Here’s my take, it is better to reach for improvement than give up.


Bella’s cough is gone! It’s been 14+ days since she interacted with anybody in Eagle County. She never showed a fever.

Axel’s Home School letter is live.

I discovered has math assessments. I’m having the kids work through so I can help them fill in their math gaps. My kids are crafty about steering me away from their gaps!

Assessments are high stakes for kids. I isolate them, emphasize we just want to have a look and stress it is an anonymous computer.

I changed up the spelling block on Saturday. Here’s the game:

  1. Five rounds of five words
  2. Words are at K/1/2/3/5 level
  3. Kids aim for 10/15/20 points respectively – they are Grade 1/3/5
  4. Points given for correct use of a word in a short story

Writer’s Workshop was a handwritten letter to someone each kid knows, who is under lockdown. We stamped and mail them. I didn’t realize my kids had never sent a letter!

Overall, I am feeling good but the power kept going off on Friday! Sitting in the dark, in the snow… made me feel deep, quivering anxiety. Some part of me was having a tough time.

This kids made some ski runs from our place down to our neighbors. The runs were called: Feel The Byrn and No Name. I heard that Feel The Byrn was a double black, if you did it with your eyes closed.

Teen Beach 2 was popular (on Amazon). The Lost Medallion also popular but too intense for our youngest, so she watched her own show (Arthur, the cartoon series).

Setting up a home working space for our oldest. Her teacher reached out and Grade Five online school is starting next Monday.

Made pizza dough from scratch as a Home School project. Later, converted into pizzas for dinner. Worked great.

Lexi’s dough didn’t rise, nor did she. We gave her a very special feather, it glitters and glows – pic doesn’t do it justice.

2020-03-23 09.01.47

First fresh shop of the lockdown happening right now. My wife is handling. One location, hit it big.

2020-03-21 11.04.55

Regime Change

I wrote this after Trump was elected (nailed #5, whiffed #6). All those positive factors have swung in the opposite direction. The “rich” are going to feel poor, fearful and depressed.

In all things, people react to changes, not absolute levels.

Global tax hikes are certain for 2021.

I am hearing sensational stories of death and trauma. I don’t watch Cable News and imagine they are full-throttle with color video.

Turn off your TV, it’s not helping you do what needs to be done.

Our protected class (the Top 2% by wealth and our “elites”) will have people close to them die unexpectedly. Many of these folks are 60+ and wondering if they will see Christmas 2020.

We will see a fundamental repricing of risk. I have no idea for how long. Our collective memory is usually three years, max.

Price is emotional.

2020-03-22 14.39.03

Virus Updates

The key point I’d like to get across here is delays cost lives and exponentially increase the damage we will sustain.

A hard, local lockdown is much cheaper than waiting and shutting down your state, or country.

Take local action and educate your county’s executive officers. They have the power to act early.

Vail’s mayor tested positive last Friday. I wish him a speedy recovery. He’s in the high-risk cohort, awful to sit and wait.

LA Times on Vail exporting COVID-19  I assume I have friends-of-friends in this article. I was almost certainly in a room with someone on that plane in last three weeks. I can’t say for sure because Eagle County is not doing aggressive contact tracing. I’ve sent the link to a couple friends at Vail Resorts.

Unfortunately, a well-known Vail Entertainer died. A timeline so we remember.

  • Rod skied Vail on March 6th.
  • He went to his doctor on March 7th.
  • He was transferred to a Denver hospital on March 9th.
  • Despite my March 13th email to the head of the program, hundreds of kids skied DEVO on March 14th.
  • Vail Mountain shut on March 15th.
  • Vail’s free bus service ran until March 18th.
  • Rod’s death was announced March 21st.

No mention in the article about the date Eagle County public health, our governor or Vail Resorts knew of his positive test result.

Rod may have been on our governor’s mind when he confirmed Eagle County community spread and warned seniors not to travel to the high country (March 11th).

None of this is a criticism. These are very difficult decisions to make.

I hope your local council/government can learn from our experience.

2020-03-22 14.45.27

Hearing about a large number of asymptomatic carriers being discovered by community testing in Iceland. Absolutely amazing how fast information can travel these days. That got me thinking:

Had a follow up Q about who’s idle. A friend of our family was sent home, with his team. He is a surgeon at a Denver hospital and was told he might be away for up to two months.

Our pediatrician lives near us. She’s mixing home school with tele-medicine. Her husband is a heart doc – he’s at home too.

I’m guessing there is a material reserve of skilled people within a short drive of CU-Boulder.

2020-03-21 14.39.13

2,600 samples reported backlogged for Colorado at Friday – we are tracking exponentially, while under reporting true positives. To give you a sense of scale, Friday’s positives were 363, excluding the backlog of 2,600 tests. We are seeing about 1-in-10 tests come back positive.

Colorado’s positive test rate still tracking up at 30%. Here’s the last seven days: 160/183/216/277/363/475/591

There could be signs of positive news out of Washington State about their being able to bend the curve.

2020-03-21 16.07.44

Cyber-break Sunday went well.

Monday’s stock open sees the market slowly ticking down to my next rebalancing point. Unlimited QE announced by the Fed. Virus confirmed in a US Senator.

The snow-baby is called Scarlett.

2020-03-21 14.39.09