Taking Stock on Day 28

2020-04-09 10.40.28

Virus Spread in Colorado – Colorado appears to have flattened the curve. However, even at a declining daily rate of change, positives are growing at a nominal rate that’s too fast for us to lift social distancing. Hopefully, we will see a meaningful decline in Month 2 of lockdown.

Colorado Hospitalizations – My home state hospitalizations have fallen far short of my expectations. I got this completely wrong. All across the US, predictions are being revised downwards, materially, daily. Personally, I have no problem with this => NYC shows us what happens when community spread gets rolling. However, human nature shows me that this will likely have implications going forward.

Unemployment – the numbers are so large they are impossible to process. More than double the total population of Colorado lost jobs since we have been locked down. The first wave of infection, and shutdown, is going to deplete most of the population’s financial reserves. Communities are going to be hit much harder on the subsequent waves of infection.

The Fed – the actions taken by the Fed make sense in the context of: (#1) spread the wave of (inevitable) bankruptcies; and (#2) they are aware of far worse information than the general public. Many businesses are non-viable, for years, at present. Go bust, more slowly.

Market Valuations – I got market directions completely wrong. My strategy means I paid no price for this error. Market valuations make sense if buying is being driven by other people’s money (OPM). Anyhow, I can’t figure it out so I’m going to wait and see. I noticed a material sale of airline shares by Buffett.

American Governance – The system is working. We have many different experiments happening across the country, and around the world. I’m grateful we have a governor, independently wealthy, not facing re-election in November, with executive experience. Our state’s system has worked well for the people.

Blessings => companionship, marriage, home school (for something to do), my kids (for relentless positivity) and crunchy salads. Everything I wanted my family to achieve in 2020, they have achieved during lockdown. They’re impressive.

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Are you aware of the concept of negative knowledge?

Certain media sources, and people, make me more stupid.

I first heard this concept many years ago via Taleb. I’ll link a twitter thread below with his latest reminder.

You can give yourself a material, sustainable advantage by rooting out people, publications and habits that make you stupid.

Taking the weekend off from my devices.

Back Monday with some tips for living in close quarters.