Ax-man crushed his strength workout yesterday: sandbag cleans/getups, walking lunges, floor press, pull ups, squat jumps, kneeling half moons… all our favorites.

The kids are having a great time and I find myself rolling along, largely on autopilot.

I’d stopped counting days but Ax-man is keeping me posted. He heard there was a big party coming up on Day 100…

Our next transition happens next week, online education support ends. In case you’re interested here’s my outline for the first module of summer learning. I’ll share the basic week schedule once I figure it out.

It’s challenging to stay focused across long time periods. Staying engaged is far better than the alternative of letting things slide.

Above is Ax’s Mother’s Day poem – kids are great!

Summer school projects

• Science fair
• COVID scrap book – kids really into this one – I’ve been keeping mine online!
• Make a board game

 

The journey from Tokyo to Hong Kong normally takes me about five hours. It’s now been 19 hours since I left Narita airport and I’m still not home, as I await my COVID-19 test result. This is what international travel is like during the coronavirus pandemic. (Thread) pic.twitter.com/mjO0N3PUil

— Will Ripley (@willripleyCNN) May 15, 2020

CNN reporter explains international travel in East Asia.

This level of care and quarantine is coming to every country/region that puts out the Corona Fire.

Implication => the virtual elimination of all trips under 14-days duration.

Ironman Hawaii was rescheduled to Feb 2021 => that’s unlikely without a vaccine deployed. Why would Hawaii Dept of Health let that many people arrive for a short duration stay?

Implication => highly mobile people opting for extended stays in countries/regions that have COVID under control => relocation to live, relatively, normally through vaccine deployment.

Quick Hits

Our youngest is riding a real bike (!) around town.

As we move out of lockdown, wouldn’t it be better to mobilize the unemployed, rather than giving them a financial incentive to stay-at-home and/or work in the underground economy?

Feed a kid.

After skipping earplugs in April, a hint of aircon and earplugs is enough to knock me into a deep deep sleep each night. The rapid onset of sleep is highly addictive for me => I can see how people get hooked on sleep aids.

My garage door broke and I fixed it on my own. This was a major personal victory!

Spent 90 minutes on the phone with Sun Run Solar yesterday – bottom line is $15,000 (net) buys $100 per month energy savings. Glad I spent the time. Install price will need to get closer to 7-year payback, with no inflation, to get me to pull the trigger.

Alternative to solar and far less money => purchase my wife a high-end pilates machine. Saves $150 per month membership fee and she will think kindly of me each time she uses it.

Kids loved Back To The Future #1 and #3.

Back To The Future #2 wasn’t great and we pulled the plug mid-way. Ax-man summed up our issue with the film… “she had fake boobs and everyone was saying bitch all the time.”

Clone Wars Series on Disney+ is popular with Ax-man. Girls are take it, or leave it.

Below is fun => our two youngest made a “swimming pool” in the basement. They actually swim in this thing…

There are front flips done off the “diving platform” when I’m not around.

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Estimates of Outcome in Fat Tailed Distributions

NNT’s simple rule of thumb for fat tails: never make a point estimate (total deaths for example) or speak of the average.

Making point estimates was a key error of mine early in the crisis. It even got me a personal note from my Medical Mentor!

If you are interested then Mike’s Math Page goes deeper.

By the way, fat tails can work in your favor. They aren’t always bad news. NNT shares many useful examples in his writing.

900 step ups this morning.

Next week goes to 1,000.

Stay Strong!