I came across a finance blog asking about the limits of statistical proof in the world of investing.
It reminded me of an old surgeon who shared, “Half of what I learned in med school turned out to be wrong.”
So I ask you…
What do YOU know but can’t prove?
You may talk about your faith.
But for me, the lesson runs deeper.
What is the ONE thing of which I can be certain but can’t prove?
I start by asking myself, what did my grandparents believe that we now know is false?
I came up with smoking and trans fats. You’ll probably get a more exciting list!
Anyhow, the lesson isn’t to switch margarine brands…
The lesson is to be skeptical with my own beliefs.
I can be certain that some of what I now know will turn out to be incorrect for my grandchildren.
However, I can’t prove which of my current facts are incorrect.
I can only be certain that some of my knowledge is wrong.
So I should be careful when I find wise people on both sides of an issue.
I might be best served by acting as if they were both right.
This article influenced by Russell: Sceptical Essays (first edition 1928!).
The Lindy Effect is a good way to sort knowledge. The longer an idea lives, the greater its life expectancy.
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