Our local property market has popped 30% since the start of the pandemic.
I did not see that coming.
Here’s a key insight => my lack of foresight had no impact on my family => our success does not rely on directional bets.
We establish a good enough portfolio then focus on: (a) keeping our cost of living in line with our cash flow, (b) shared experiences and (c) staying the course.
A recent John Mauldin note reminded me of two components of real estate.
Shelter – a place to sleep, ideally in a great public school district (links to my post on supporting public education)
Investment – the potential for reliable cash flow and long term capital gain
To those I would add:
Signaling – an example from my own life. Before my wife was “my wife,” I bought a townhouse in Boulder. It showed her, I was committed to Boulder. It showed her family, I had the funds to take care of their sister/daughter.
Asthetics – worth between “a lot” and “nothing” depending on my stage of life. As I age, increasingly appreciated. I was 50 before I could relate to the concept of a $1,000,000 view.
Community – In my early 30s, I found myself in Christchurch, NZ. The community was an excellent fit for the life I wanted to live (sharing outdoor activities with friends, elite triathlon). The South Island of New Zealand has always felt “right” to me. On the other side of the equator, was Boulder, Colorado. There I found love and decided to establish my family.
I didn’t need to own real estate for love, community or family. some qualities work best when inverted.
Location inverted => The principle here might be don’t invest anywhere your spouse won’t live.
Asthetics inverted => Absent financial duress, locations you can buy cheap tend to stay cheap.
You can extend to secondary markets.
My family loves Vail.
Rather than buying a 40 yo condo for close to a decade’s worth of core living expenses… we allocated 2% of the capital and joined a world-class ski club.
My annual family ski budget, including club and rental housing, is about the same as what the old condo would cost to own. The principle => don’t capitalize luxury expenditure.
I made this decision because I’m not confident about my life 10 years from now – when I’ll be an empty nester.
In making a decision to “not buy” I have maintained: (a) a cheap option to change my mind in the future, (b) I’m still debt free, and (c) my capital is available to be used elsewhere.
About elsewhere… I am very confident that my children are going to be grateful that I kept the family invested in the Boulder real estate market. Hedge the risk your family will be priced out of the place your kids grew up.
Of course, this assumes you are living in a place you don’t want to leave. It’s not just your spouse you should pay attention to…
The above components can work against each other.
For example, signaling vs return on investment. I’ll give an example…
After we married, I bought a very large house, not far off the size of a small school. The bills, and constant yard work, took the fun out of ownership. Being a big shot turned out differently than I expected.
This experience nudged me into a principle, apply the minimum capital to achieve the goal and pay attention to the cost of ownership (money, emotion, time).
And that’s really the point I wanted to make.
In a hot market
- Consider the need you are seeking to fill
- Pay attention to the cost in time, emotion and ownership
- Remember that capital is precious and leverage can trap you in situations where a renter can easily exit
- If your time horizon is less than a decade then rent
All of this is easier to see when you’ve been through a few recessions. At the start of 2009, I promised myself to never opt-in to avoidable financial stress.
The tough part is building the capital and credit capacity to be able to buy.
Whatever you were seeking to achieve, you achieved it BEFORE you purchased.
Hope this helps.