Antifragile Thinking – New Old Ancient Nature

How can we use volatility to improve our thinking?

Rank the incoming information according to age – New Old Ancient Nature – if in doubt then choose the older option.

Remember that time will kill most ideas and concepts. Be willing to miss out on the latest/greatest – pay attention to concepts that are proven by time.

I coach a surgeon and his Dad was also a doctor. Now retired, the older doctor noted that “everything I learned in med school turned out to be incorrect.” Now clearly, everything wasn’t wrong! I would love to ask the doc, out of everything you learned, what was right?

We might get a list like:

  • Hygiene – do it
  • Blood pressure as leading indicator of a need for lifestyle change
  • Smoking – avoid it

Thinking back to my own education (economics and finance). What proved to be correct?

  • Track the cash
  • Interest rate trends
  • Mean reversion
  • Compounding

Another field that interests is endurance sport:

  • Consistency
  • Variable Stimuli
  • Strength and Stamina
  • Specific Preparation

Nutrition:

  • Restrict the “new” – refined, processed, modified, engineered
  • Focus on the “old”  – ingredients your great-grandmother could have eaten

In a field that interests you, what are the three concepts that have stood the test of time? Focus on those concepts.

As you discover the power of this concept, you’ll benefit from reducing the fire hose of noise that reaches you daily via the media, advertising and social networks. These sources of info are “new” and. therefore, useless at best. More likely, they are misleading and reduce the quality of our thinking.

To improve my thinking, I need less noise in my head. “Not-thought” is what makes “good thought” clear to me.

Turning this on it’s head… if I can increase the amount of “no-thought” then the depth of my insight will increase and I’ll be able to see the useful info contained in what gets through. Implications:

  • Reduce email – a favorite from Taleb’s AMA is limit to 15 messages per day
  • Restrict media and eliminate the most noisy sources – television, chat forums, Facebook, reality TV, talk radio
  • Schedule breaks to settle mind (exercise, mediation)
  • Replace mental habits that clutter thinking
    • envy replaced by being happy for others
    • over-correction replaced by finding the good
    • Tinkering replaced by letting it ride
    • anger/fear/sorrow replaced by gratitude

I find that I don’t need to be charitable for the above to work. 

“Thank God, I’m free to act differently than that person.” triggers gratitude and let’s me move on.

Family Mantras

In my life, focusing on the faults of others is always a reminder to look inwards. For when I’m struggling with myself, I start to look outwards for easier targets! My article on creeping clutter was triggered by catching myself wishing my wife would clean up the kitchen.

There is a lot of anger in the world outside my home. Even inside, the minds of preschoolers are churning with strong emotions.

I’ve been able to modify my own sources of greed, envy and anger. I do this through awareness of three truths:

  • We’ve already won
  • We have more than we need
  • I don’t need to be right, I want to be at peace

When I see the truth in these mantras, I remove the seeds of greed, anger and envy. If these seeds grow then we can end up disgraced, or in prison. Theft, fraud, infidelity, anger and unhappiness have their root in a desire for more.

As I roll through my day, I am on the lookout for examples of how we’ve won, how we have more than we need and how serenity benefits the family.

A friend observed that having the opportunity to argue shows how lucky we are. Debate is a sign of affluence. When faced with an argument, he sees a person that is lucky to have the time to make themselves unhappy!

From the outside, it can appear that I spend a lot of time focused on the risk of negative outcomes. However, from the inside, I find it helpful to remember that my time is limited. To my family, I say…

Whatever happens, remember this – I had a fantastic life and loved you very much.

What’s your family mantra?

A Perfect Day

In January, I was given a gift that most parents (with three kids under five) never receive, a week alone in Hawaii.

I knew this might be my only week alone this year.

I had to make it count!

It took me a few days to create the Perfect Day. Here’s what it contains:

  • Train twice
  • Ride bike uphill
  • Espresso
  • Cold room for sleeping
  • Reading and writing
  • Quiet time

To create this day, I had to say “no” quite a bit, mostly to my training buddy but also to myself.

This day would lose it’s lustre over time because it is missing love, service and connection to others. However, I can bring this day back to the real world and include my family.

It is nearly impossible for me to recall serenity. Stress is much more salient. I have to trust my past self when he sends advice to my future self!

Social media, cable and group think are not about serenity – they are about triggering envy, fear and anger.

I explained my list to my wife and she asked me, “what about me?”

She didn’t remember that 72 hours earlier I asked her to write out her perfect week.

I forget too.

When you have moments of clarity, write them down.

Creeping Clutter

A year ago, I laid out a vision for my life at 45. Four months later, I had made significant progress and shared that process with an outline of What To Keep.

With ten months until I’m 45, I find myself slipping backwards.

  • Twitter followers creeping up
  • Constantly checking Twitter #connect for validation/approval
  • Checking Twitter #discover as often as I used to check Google News

Perhaps I have seasonal dissatisfaction disorder and this will clear once I’m able to ride more.

Sounds like I need to:

  • Get Twitter off my phone
  • Check Twitter every other hour (now to April); then every 4th hour (May); then 2x per day (June)
  • Declutter the seven spaces where I spend most of my time (office, kitchen, living room, bedroom, car, garage and closet).

Perhaps I’m over-sensitive to the fatigue I experience from clutter and kid noise. Just in case, I actioned #1 and scheduled #3 across the next week.

Clutter seems to require constant clearing!

Cyber Strikeout

Consider why you are on the internet.

I’m on because it is an effective way for me to share my writing, communicate quickly and learn. I need to remember these reasons because the internet, like certain people, can be an emotional drain.

In cyberspace, I operate a one-strike-you’re-out policy. When I come across a source of discord, I block it. Following a decade of pruning, this only happens once a quarter and keeps my mind free of clutter.

I’ve noticed that many of my pals take Facebook quite seriously, with posts and comments impacting their mood. I’ve heard…

  • Did you see that…
  • I can’t believe that…
  • Why did they…
  • I wish I had less friends…

Most people struggle to break free from tabloid journalism – we’re all hardwired for voyeurism. The way I started was to eliminate one site for a month – I started with a chat forum that I used to check hourly. It was tough but I told myself that I only needed to last 28 days.

Because our brains are wired to notice negatives, more than positives, it only takes a small trigger to adversely impact our mood. Within your online life, it might be worth considering your strike rate.

How often does a site, a person or a situation trigger negative thoughts?

In my life, Facebook and chat forums had a strike rate of once per login. It was easy to see an immediate benefit from breaking their hold on me.

Similarly, because they have a low value-to-noise ratio, there aren’t comments sections on any of my websites. My sites exist to share useful information and free my mind via publishing.

Leaving a habit behind forever can seem daunting. As humans, we’re very attached to our habits, even those that hurt us (smoking, abusive relationships, toxic people, media sources that generate fear & anger).

Take a break for 28 days then ask yourself if you miss it.

This habit will change your life.