Regime Change


A friend asked for my thoughts about “what he should do” regarding the changes that are about to happen within the US Government.

My quick answer was “do nothing.”

2016-11-25-16-16-29..but there is a lot we can do.

I spent the days after the election teaching my kids to read, helping with math and working on the family’s open water skills.

My advice to “do nothing” is based on the following…

#1 – if you are adjusting strategy more than once a decade then you don’t have an effective strategy // if you truly feel the need to change then there is a structural problem within your family plan

#2 – you should consider tweaking strategy when your life changes (not the ruling party) – unemployment, impending retirement, new dependents, less dependents, major illness, wealth transfers // external surprises are going to happen all the time — spend your emotional energy preparing yourself to stay-the-course, not feeding your fears

#3 – the best time to sell high-quality assets is “never”

2016-11-25-16-31-59#4 – all the emotional energy and financial wealth spent on elections is better allocated to the next generation of your family

#5 – the richest people in America are about to feel a whole lot richer // stay invested and, if you sell to rich people then, raise your prices

#6 – with Elaine Chao’s appointment, the pieces are falling in place for a major domestic infrastructure initiative — this strikes me as a whole lot better (for everyone) than nation building via Asian land wars

#7 – don’t build capacity, or leverage, to the peak // the next recession is likely to be large

#8 – there will be excellent buying opportunities in all our futures // I’ve been researching my next major purchase since before the last recession

2016-11-26-10-29-40The hive-mind has been wrong all year. Glaringly wrong!

I ask myself, “Have they ever been right?!”

Spending time infecting our minds with media noise is the worst thing we can do for clear thinking. Turn off the media, learn persuasion psychology and study history.

Know that the largest gains in your family’s human capital come from self-improvement, ever stronger marriages and educating the next generation.

  • Financially – stay the course
  • Individually – incremental positive change

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Seven Positive Steps

2016-11-15-16-04-05Seven positive steps…

1 – unfollow the two most prolific sources of agreement in my life – top right hand corner on FB

2 – dial down pundits, forecasters and experts

3 – add sources from outside my circle (Taleb, MartinezAdams)

4 – slowly read a book about manipulation and another about high-conflict people (15 minutes per day) – choose one tactic, apply it for a month

5 – make time each day to use nature to slow my mind down (deserts, oceans, forests, mountains) (twice daily)

6 – teach a kid while demonstrating grace (2×20 minutes per day)

7 – improve my ability to listen by being still and not responding

Simple, not easy.

Effective Thinking

2016-11-10-10-45-33What type of life am I looking to experience day-to-day?

I’m going to wager that you’re not aiming for grief-stricken, miserable, sad or angry.

If you can feel a desire for happiness within your self, then perhaps you’ll be able to see it in your adversaries.

If you’re still having trouble then get to know the children of your enemies.

I’ve yet to meet a preschooler lacking basic goodness.

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2016-11-09-16-39-44-1I’ve also found that, regardless of the merits of my beliefs, a negative attitude has strong effects on the people around me:

  • Negativity fatigues the loyal
  • Negativity repels the positive

Loyal, positive people are jewels in my life.

It’s worth a lot of effort to keep them in my circle.

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2016-11-10-20-49-55It’s not always easy to see the source of my negative attitudes.

So I flip the question and ask myself, “Which actions generate a positive vibe within me?” and pay attention when I laugh out loud.

I have a good idea about my playbook.

Do you know your own?

2016-11-12-09-40-50Then it’s up to me to do the work necessary to live the life I want to experience.

Do good work.

Financial Planning for Long-Term Success

2016-09-07-12-05-16November 1st is the start of open enrollment in the US healthcare sector. To celebrate, Unitedhealthcare notified me that my premiums are heading up by 25%. I wonder how the total compensation (salary, bonus, private jets, security, stock) of their senior people will compare to the next president’s cabinet?

I overreact to unexpected, but manageable, loses.

Perhaps you are the same?

2016-10-14-17-33-43It takes effort to make myself more rational, and avoid exposing my family to unnecessary suffering. Here, I include loss of happiness from worrying about the small stuff.

The antidote is to always frame negative surprises in the largest possible context.

Our premium change is…

  • …less than 1% of the increase in our net assets over the same period
  • …less than 0.25% of my family’s net worth
  • …less than 5% of my family’s core cost of living

The premium shock motivated me to take a deep dive into family assets, liabilities and expenditures.

We measure core cost of living in terms of healthcare, total taxation, education, food and housing (mortgage, taxes, insurance).

Our key discretionary items are childcare, vehicles, vacations, college funds and gifting.

2016-10-14-14-56-00When you’re looking at a budget, or a business, go deeper and consider…

  1. Sources of large changes in income // unemployment, vacancies, new initiatives
  2. Sources of large increases in expenses // lease rates, insurance premiums, tax rates
  3. Prudent future planning // long lifespans, persistent lower investment returns

What can go wrong? What can we do, when inevitable shocks arise?

What can go right? How can we increase our exposure to large positive outcomes?

  • Children
  • Education
  • Capacity to help others with high-value work
  • Equity investments
  • Voluntary simplicity – our greatest wealth creator

2016-10-15-09-42-33While no one can predict the future, the 30-year bond (2.5%) is indicating that prospective returns are likely to be less than any of us have seen across our adult lives.

Historically, financial freedom targets net assets equivalent to 25 years of core cost of living. While that might be true historically, have a careful look at your joint life expectancies and quantify your longevity risk.

Young couples need to consider 50-year retirements, with 0.5-1.0% real rates of return (before taxes, fees and expenses).This possible outcome is far different than what I was taught in school, or even considered five years ago.

Parenting – Define Better

2016-09-30-16-53-02I was at a wilderness first aid course and a fellow student asked me if I thought parenthood had made my life “better.”

I gave a wry smile and shared that the challenges of fatherhood have made me a better man.

I further shared that it has been hard to detect any improvement in the quality of my day-to-day life.

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However, it gets easier.

Our youngest turned four last month and that marks a key shift in our house. The younger kids (4 and 5) still get worked up but we have the skills to avoid making the situation worse.

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Later, I had the realization that I’m basing my evaluation by looking at a single thread of my life.

You see, we only see the life we live. When I think more broadly, I’m certain that there are many threads that are tougher than living with three loud kids that love me.

For personal happiness, it pays to ask around, get out of the house and serve the community.

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I have accepted that I am a good parent but I might not be good at parenting.

What I mean… I can provide the kids what they need but there isn’t the ease, and joy, that I see with mastery.

I shared this observation with my parenting mentor and she gave me a wry smile!

+++

After eight years, I’ve come to the realization that my limitations are OK and I pay attention to them.

My motto…

When I am struggling with someone then it’s a sign that I’m spending too much time with them. So, it’s better for me, and them, if I stay under the irritation threshold.

Keeping a little in reserve can be easier for a guy (see my piece on Mommy Fatigue) but my wife sees the benefits (for all of us) of acknowledging limits.

Passion

What were you talking about the last time you were the most animated person in the conversation?

There’s information inside your passion.

Write it down!


In my case, I was talking about trying to be a father within a successful marriage.

A young wife will have a portfolio of needs, biases and desires.

As a husband, and new father, you are going to have your own portfolio of ideas for success.

Avoid the error of seeking to change your spouse…

…instead, be the best person you can be, while seeking to understand your core needs.

Remember…

When you are under stress, you are going to have a tendency to assign blame to your partner — stop this immediately — it is counterproductive. Try a week as a single parent and remember your family needs all the help it can get.

If you ask around (about your “problems”) then you will find out the parenting experience is universal. A better way to frame your household is your “new reality!”

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Many of my friends have a tendency to frame fatherhood (and marriage) as a negotiation.

I think there is a more effective way, than trying to outwit, outplay and outlast your life partner.

  • Be clear and consistent about your own needs.
  • Be willing to work to get your needs met.
  • Support your partner’s needs.

Childcare is an area where couples stress themselves, and their marriage, to save from their family budget.

Most my peers have the ability to earn a multiple of their babysitter’s hourly pay. Allocate four hours of work per week — invest the incremental income in time spent as a couple and time spent alone.

A wise allocation of time can bring you closer as a couple and keep you from tipping over the edge with your kids.

Reaching For Success – Young Families

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What makes a successful family system?

If you ask around then you might hear love, kindness, tolerance and forgiveness. All good but, with a room full of youngsters, these “higher states” often seem unattainable.

Let’s focus on specific tactics.

2016-08-17 17.20.34Renunciation – As an elite endurance athlete, this was a strength of mine. However, what serves a high-performer’s goals is unlikely to serve one’s family.

What happens when deeply help beliefs get in the way of being a good father, a good parent, a good son?

Most of us have past habits living inside of us. Feeding these desires as a single adult have limited repercussions in our lives. As a father, self-indulgence leads to misery.

What beliefs/habits are holding me back from being a better man?

The difficulty of change is completely worth it.

2016-08-17 10.52.28Intangible Assets – What is peace of mind worth?

What price are you willing to pay for a happier spouse?

How much is it worth to teach a three-year old conflict resolution skills?

I promise that you will undervalue the intangible benefits of greater serenity and you will greatly overestimate the pleasure you receive from hard assets.

In my family budget, “luxury” spending is focused on two areas:

  • Pre-K for the kids
  • Childcare for your marriage

At the end of 2012, we downsized our home to ensure we could fund the above.

2016-08-16 11.24.53One-On-One Time – It takes one-on-one time to get inside your child’s world.

Spend the same amount of time (overall) with your spouse.

Hold sacred your daily quiet time with yourself.

With kids, spouse, self, job, PTA, laundry, parents… we have endless demands on our time!

It is “ok to say no.”

Get more comfortable doing enough for the family, rather than your best for yourself. You might never be fully comfortable with time compromises. Discomfort is OK.

2016-08-14 12.26.58Patience – it will take work, over time, to learn skills to maintain your sanity, within the natural chaos of a new family home.

Give yourself 1,000 days to see where you need help.

Go get help!

Experienced preschool teachers have a wealth of knowledge you can tap to become skillful at home.

Most my “problems” are created when a lack of skill meets my emotional habits of anger, retreat, sadness, aggression and revenge.

2016-08-13 21.00.46Renunciation, self-care, connection and patience.

 

Family Investment

2016-05-29 16.30.07Having worked in finance, and coached the triathlete demographic, I know people with a lot of discretionary income.

I have three kids and the way we allocate income has changed significantly over the years. Here’s a current snapshot.

family_spend

The marriage/kids slice (blue) is about half our spending. What the heck is in there?

  • Sitters and Live-In Au Pair
  • Preschool Fees
  • House cleaning
  • After school activities
  • Summer activities

With minimal psychological maneuvering it would be easy to shift the marriage/family allocation towards myself.

My wife arrived into our marriage with an expectation of driving herself straight into the ground to “support the family.” Her story is repeated across a range of households.

It is tempting to compromise our marriage for short-term savings.

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I like to invert the temptation and ask myself…

How do my spending choices benefit my marriage?

What about my health?

Consider…

A – collectively, we see no issue with parents torching their physical, and mental, health to “support” the family. Among my peers, the easiest way to get time alone is by working full-time. Double income, no time.

B – couples are often blind to the price the marriage is paying from being completely fried. The baby/preschool years will end up being a decade for us (2008-2018). Do you have enough passion in your life?

C – my spending places the highest premium on buying time

  1. time exercising – to maintain my physical health
  2. time alone – to maintain my mental health
  3. time with my spouse – to share experiences

My wife often feels uncomfortable with our childcare spending. There is tremendous social pressure for a mother to follow a path of doing everything.

Buying time is insurance against the risk of arriving at 50 overweight, mentally fried, with a marriage in need of counseling and an oldest heading into middle school with an angry (or absent) father.

Trade money for time.

Family Risks

cargobikeWhen you consider risks to your family’s capital, what sort of things pop up in your mind?

  • Stock market crashes
  • Unemployment
  • Death of main breadwinner
  • Divorce
  • Underperformance of family business
  • Change in political situation
  • Change in interest rate policy
  • War and civil unrest

If we broaden the scope to human capital, what might you add?

  • Addiction and Substance Abuse
  • Remittance dependence
  • Health and wellness
  • Dementia and eldercare

I’ve known five generations of my family and we’ve experienced all of the above.

Surprisingly, the top-of-mind risks are not our source of greatest loss.

Aside from mental illness, our greatest source of turmoil has been due to developing an abnormal sense of normal. More specifically, we’ve looked up to friends & family that led us astray with regard to our financial aspirations.

DaddyGIf you happen to be a self-made individual then you will, quite rightly, say “it’s my life and I’ll live the way I darn well choose.”

You are right.

I commend you.

Self-reliance is a wonderful gift to our communities and I hope to teach it to my kids.

…but I remind myself of the cost of benchmarking at ever higher levels of achievement.

  • The cost comes in time not spent with my spouse and kids.
  • The cost comes from choosing work that is ethically ambiguous.
  • The cost comes when spending time becomes spending money.

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This caution also applies to risk.

As a young man, I tracked into higher and higher levels of “acceptable risk.” A good friend died. Another went bankrupt.

Teach your kids to notice risk-seeking behavior in themselves, and others.

  • Mountaineers => good, great, dead
  • Property Developers => good, great, bust
  • Professional Athletes => good, great, disgraced

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Finally, consider the impact of neighborhood and peers.

A friend jokes that his daughter was one of the few kids at her Bay-Area school that didn’t have an elevator in her home.

What’s my children’s definition of normal?

Choose wisely.

Healthcare Tradeoffs

2016-05-13 12.25.44I’ve been helping an elderly friend navigate the healthcare system. It is easy to get present-procedure focused. No one took a long-term view of my buddy’s life path.

It’s going to be easiest to explain by putting myself in his shoes.

Let’s say I’m 80 years old and have a stroke, from which I will recover. At the hospital, they discover I need a pacemaker. The pacemaker is required because I have a condition, which is causing my heart to stop beating for up to 5 seconds at a time, mainly when I sleep.

The heart surgeon says I should fix my heart – he’s done the procedure close to 1,000 times. I am likely to see additional years of life.

Why would I hesitate?

I might hesitate because I know my family history.

By the time the pacemaker battery needs replacing (my late-80s) all my grandparents would have been dead, or nearing death.

Here’s what my family tree has been serving up…

  • Organ failure with Alzheimers (pacemaker kept on ticking until kidney failure killed the heart)
  • COPD with dementia
  • Cancer
  • Stroke

“Doc, I have a concern we are helping my body last long enough for me to lose my mind.”

No easy answers…

…but here are some questions:

  1. What’s my mental, physical, spiritual state now? How am I doing relative to peers and family history? There could be very good years left before dementia hits hard.
  2. Are there conditions/diagnoses where we switch off the pacemaker? Do I want to specify, now, what my power-of-attorney should do? It’s easier for a POA to follow my instructions than struggle to balance the considerations of: past self, ever changing conditions and future self.
  3. Does my POA have access to a medical advisor with the skill, and compassion, to navigate these decisions? Look for a middle-aged MD, with a large family tree, where the elders frequently live into their 90s.
  4. Do I have the capacity to continue to bring love into the world? I’d be willing to suffer quite a bit if it was a win for my children.

Lifestyle, diet and modern medicine can greatly reduce our chances of dying early. In each of our family trees, there comes a point where we’ve done about as good as we can expect.

I’ve preemptively forgiven my POA for the decisions that will need to be made.

I’ve had a wonderful life.