I had a friend ask me if I thought “cash is king” in the current environment. My answer is more than can fit in a tweet so here you go.
Key Point: when we read reports of monetary policy tightening, I think we are being misled. On a historical basis, policy remains accommodating.
The collective is lousy at remembering history.
US Federal Reserve Total Assets
The value of everything, in the world, has been inflated by the actions of Central Bankers. I think everyone accepts that point. Thing is, it is impossible to measure the scale of the inflation.
In recent memory, the best example will be to cast your mind back to when crypto was a one-way bet.
Asset inflation feeds upon itself, until it doesn’t.
The increase in the size of the Fed’s balance sheet has been a strong tailwind and dominates our collective memory.
If you’re 35 and under, then unprecedented monetary inflation is the only environment you’ve ever known.
Time for another chart.
As at 12 Sept 2022
Here’s a chart of our current reality (black line).
We’ve lived the rate increase, but assets prices have not adjusted to the new reality.
Why?
The economy is rolling along – the tailwind was powerful, and strong
It is unclear where the Fed’s massive balance sheet is going – there has been 13 years of QE – who wants to bet against another round, I don’t
There remains plenty of OPM (other people’s money) and leverage
Those are equity, bond and money market funds I track, as at last Monday.
US 30-year Mortgage Rates 2015-now
Mortgage rates appear to have jumped.
However, let’s have a look at the next chart.
2003-now
Rates are only just getting back to their 2003-2008 level, a time when people were hardly holding back on real estate.
So what do I think:
1// Assets could get cheaper – I don’t see any case for a melt up.
2// If the Fed materially shrinks their balance sheet then assets will get a lot cheaper. Cutting their balance sheet in half takes us back to 2015.
3// Sit down and ask yourself “what if” asset prices drop to 2015 levels, a 50% reduction. Odds are, you have your interest rates locked in. So the main risk will be short term cash flow due to unemployment. How might you protect yourself?
4// Having a year’s core cost of living in an “emergency” fund makes sense. Personally, I didn’t reinvest the proceeds from a Q2 asset sale. My reserve is enough to navigate a nasty recession without selling anything further.
So a “prudent cash reserve” is King.
I don’t think it makes sense to liquidate positions, and pay extra taxes, because risk assets might fall in value.
I was very fortunate Scott Molina took an interest when I moved to New Zealand. Not that he had much of a choice, I turned up at his garage (ready to ride) most mornings. Scott has studied, and applied, what works for his entire life.
One of my favorite follows (Elias Lohtonen) was writing about the differences between Beginners and Elites. The context was metabolic fitness, as determined in his lab.
This got me thinking about my journey as a new athlete.
When I started out, I disliked intense training:
It crushed me
It hurt
I wasn’t very good at it
However, I thought I “needed it.”
Turns out I was lucky I didn’t bother with it for many years.
We now have a better idea why.
I’ll take you back 25 years.
Lactate As A Fuel Source, Not Waste Product
When I learned exercise physiology in the 1990s, lactic acid was presented as the athlete’s enemy – causing pain and slowing us down.
Difficult, searing training was believed necessary to teach our bodies to buffer and tolerate this acidic compound.
We used to think lactate would form crystals in our muscles, causing post-exercise muscle soreness. Hours, and days, later we would “flush the legs” to remove these waste products. We’d get massages to “break up the lactate.”
Turns out we were wrong.
Lactate is essential, and extremely useful, once we’ve trained our bodies to use it.
Lactate is also a key regulator of intermediary metabolism, regulating substrate utilization. It decreases and inhibits the breakdown of fat for energy purposes (lipolysis), as well as the rate of glucose utilization by cells (glucolysis).
The bold part is mine.
What does this mean for you?
Athletes who start fast, and perform “intense” endurance training impair their ability to burn fat
Every human I’ve ever met (!) wanted to burn more fat.
What are the implications for your training?
Slow your endurance sessions down.
Endurance training needs to feel light (link is to an article on “aerobic threshold feel”).
Endurance adaptations favor duration.
We all share a bias towards thinking that “more intense is better.”
Intensity is not better, it is different…
…and a key difference is you are burning less fat.
You already have plenty of capacity to generate lactate. If you want to improve performance (and burn more fat) then you need to focus primarily on the low-end.
2// Next up, Dr. San Millán’s paper on Metabolic Flexibility is a fascinating read on the differences between three groups: elite athletes, recreational athletes and individuals with metabolic syndrome.
From the article linked above
3// Overcoming our shared bias towards intensity : One of the way’s to retrain your mind is to focus on submax performance. At 53, I’m very interested in my paces, and powers, at 130 bpm. This is ~35 beats below max (the “top of”cap” in the table below, approximately).
4// How do you know what’s “intense enough?”
From Last Week’s Thread on Training Zones The table is a good starting point, you can dial in more accurately using the resources in the thread
Let’s see what that implies for my last week: 15 hours total => 900 minutes
Strength => 90 minutes
Stamina => 720 minutes
Intensity => 90 minutes
Tempo => 54 Minutes
Threshold => 27 minutes
VO2 & VO2+ => 9 minutes
Is there a training segment that I’m avoiding?
Think outside the box, there are many interesting sessions that are hybrids of strength/intensity.
Use the small allocations wisely and have fun with them.
++
What Trades Make Sense?
First Two Tips:
Repeat don’t progress
Hit the minimums
If I want to ADD then do a TRADE.
Example #1: I like to run in the hills. However, I don’t need to run up a mountain every week! Across a week, a fortnight, a month… I manage my “elevation load” between weeks.
Example #2: I’m relatively strong for my age and category. I trade Strength load to accommodate more Stamina within my week.
Example #3: Max HR test last week? Add more Zone 1 to start the following week. Balance the intensity mixes across more than just the week. Give yourself time to fully absorb your highest intensity sessions. Same thing applies for sessions that cause significant muscle damage (plyometrics, downhill run load).
Example #4: get to the source of your life stress:
Sleep
Alcohol
Energy deficits
Spontaneous tempo
Over-reaction
Excessive load
Too many goals
If I want to better absorb training then reduce the stress caused by choices outside my core goals.
Endurance training, done to the best of our ability, offers an incentive to straighten out our lives.
++
Avoiding Ruin – What Might Screw Up Next Week?
In the acute sense… Avoid The Injury!
Take time to address the little niggles while they are still little!
Dial the program DOWN before the injury is created.
Trade low quality days for high quality weeks.
In the chronic sense… going down an unsustainable path feels great, ride up to the day before you fall apart!
Consider, then address, areas of instability:
Relationships
Sponsors
Finances
Emotions
Habits
How to make this happen?
Put it in your calendar!
Make an appointment with yourself, daily.
Example: 10 minutes every day on mobility and one positive action to reduce long term stress.
Little positive steps have big impacts when applied over long time horizons.
The ability to bring these habits into your athletic life gives you a skill set to improve all aspects of your life.
Feel The Byrn 
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